Harley-Davidson to report third-quarter 2026 results on October 29
The news is neutral, and the options market leans toward puts (downside protection), so the money is cautious rather than clearly pointing either way.
PRNewsWire · 10/09
Undercurrent · Money-flow snapshot
HOG Max Pain, Dark Pool & Options Flow
HOG max pain for the Oct 16, 2026 expiry is $26. The last price, $26.90, is 3.5% above it. Call wall $31 · put floor $25.
What the institutional money is doing on HOG right now — dark pool, options positioning, and where the news and the money disagree. Free.
The money right now
Dark pool share
35.0% (market avg 52%)
Dark pool volume vs its norm
0.8×
Short share of that
69.3% (norm 66%)
Price
$26.90
Max pain
$26
Oct 16 exp
Call wall
$31
Oct 16 exp
Put floor
$25
Oct 16 exp
Put/Call ratio
5.83
Squeeze pressure
45
Dark pool share: 35% off-exchange — 17pp below the market
Off-exchange prints never touch the public book, so they move size without moving the quote. That is the point of using them. Most of the day cleared on the lit market — either there was nothing to hide, or the large players sat out. Short share of the off-exchange piece: 69% vs a 66% norm.
Source: FINRA · Fri 10/9 close
What it means: Dark-pool activity in HOG is roughly in line with its own recent norm, with no strong accumulation or distribution signal. Options positioning leans toward puts, with more puts than calls held, though this is the standing position rather than fresh new bets.
News vs the money
Three beaten-down stocks, including possibly HOG, are drawing Wall Street interest for a possible rebound
This is a general analyst-buzz story, and the options market still leans toward puts, so the money is not matching the upbeat tone.
MarketBeat · 10/07
⚡ DIVERGENCEHarley-Davidson shares rise after Citi upgrades the stock to Buy
The upgrade is positive, but options show more puts than calls, so the money is leaning defensive against the upbeat call.
Barrons · 10/05
Dow futures edge higher as investors watch bond yields
This is a broad market story with no specific HOG signal, and the put-leaning options positioning is unchanged by it.
Schaeffers Research · 10/05
Monday's Wall Street analyst calls include Harley-Davidson among many names
HOG is one of many names in a roundup, and the money signal is the same put-leaning positioning, so it adds little new information.
247 Wallst · 10/05
See it live, free
Get Undercurrent — the news behind the money →Add HOG to My Watchlist in the free SIGNUM HQ app (iPhone · Android) →New to this? Why'd It Move? turns today's move into a 60-second lesson →What is a “divergence”?
A divergence is when the news narrative and the institutional money flow point in opposite directions — a bearish headline while large call premium is bought, or heavy dark-pool selling under a bullish story. It signals the crowd and the desks may disagree.
How to read these numbers
Dark-pool volume — The share of trading executed off-exchange, at wholesalers and dark pools. About half of all US share volume prints there on an ordinary day, so the level by itself says almost nothing. What carries information is the distance from this name’s own recent norm, and whether the off-exchange size ran above its usual.
Off-exchange short share — How much of that off-exchange volume was sold short. The median across all listed names is about 49%, because wholesalers filling retail buy orders sell short and cover later. A reading near half is plumbing, not a bearish vote — compare it to the same name’s own 20-day norm.
Max pain — The price where the most options expire worthless — positioning often gravitates toward it near expiry.
Call wall / Put floor — Strikes with the heaviest call/put open interest — they often act as short-term resistance and support.
Put/Call ratio — Below ~0.7 leans bullish (more calls); above ~1 leans defensive (more puts).
Nearby tickers
Today’s off-exchange leaders → · See all tickers →Today’s rankings — what broke from normal
Learn the numbers