MPC max pain for the Oct 16, 2026 expiry is $370, from the Fri Oct 2 options chain. Call wall $440 · put floor $360.
What the institutional money is doing on MPC right now — dark pool, options positioning, and where the news and the money disagree. Free.
Stock rallied to $433, but options traders are holding significantly more downside insurance (puts) than upside bets (calls), and off-exchange volume leaned short—a mismatch between price action and positioning.
Despite bullish earnings narrative, options traders are holding 57% more puts than calls and show no new upside positioning, suggesting skepticism about the next beat.
No new options positioning data available; standing put-heavy stance (1.57 put-to-call ratio) suggests the market is not favoring MPC relative to peers at current levels.
While dividend narrative is constructive, options traders hold defensive positioning (more puts than calls) and show no new accumulation, indicating caution about the safety claim at current valuations.
Stock rallied sharply, but options positioning remains defensive (put-heavy, low squeeze score), and off-exchange volume shows no shift toward accumulation—suggesting the rally may be driven by momentum rather than conviction.
A divergence is when the news narrative and the institutional money flow point in opposite directions — a bearish headline while large call premium is bought, or heavy dark-pool selling under a bullish story. It signals the crowd and the desks may disagree.
Dark-pool volume — The share of trading executed off-exchange, at wholesalers and dark pools. About half of all US share volume prints there on an ordinary day, so the level by itself says almost nothing. What carries information is the distance from this name’s own recent norm, and whether the off-exchange size ran above its usual.
Off-exchange short share — How much of that off-exchange volume was sold short. The median across all listed names is about 49%, because wholesalers filling retail buy orders sell short and cover later. A reading near half is plumbing, not a bearish vote — compare it to the same name’s own 20-day norm.
Max pain — The price where the most options expire worthless — positioning often gravitates toward it near expiry.
Call wall / Put floor — Strikes with the heaviest call/put open interest — they often act as short-term resistance and support.
Put/Call ratio — Below ~0.7 leans bullish (more calls); above ~1 leans defensive (more puts).
