⚡ DIVERGENCEWhat to watch before buying bond ETFs
News frames cautious decision-making; money shows heavy short selling off-exchange yesterday, suggesting institutions are hedging or reducing exposure rather than buying.
What the institutional money is doing on SCHO right now — dark pool, options positioning, and where the news and the money disagree. Free.
News frames cautious decision-making; money shows heavy short selling off-exchange yesterday, suggesting institutions are hedging or reducing exposure rather than buying.
News reports a modest buy; yesterday's money flow was dominated by short sales off-exchange, which contradicts a bullish accumulation narrative.
News highlights a significant buy; but yesterday's off-exchange activity was 92.4% short sales, suggesting the market is hedging or trimming, not accumulating.
News reports a significant trim; yesterday's heavy short selling off-exchange (92.4%, well above norm) aligns with this reduction, reinforcing a defensive stance.
News presents a neutral comparison; money shows heavy institutional short selling off-exchange, indicating the market is not building bullish positions in either fund right now.
A divergence is when the news narrative and the institutional money flow point in opposite directions — a bearish headline while large call premium is bought, or heavy dark-pool selling under a bullish story. It signals the crowd and the desks may disagree.
Dark-pool volume — The share of trading executed off-exchange, at wholesalers and dark pools. About half of all US share volume prints there on an ordinary day, so the level by itself says almost nothing. What carries information is the distance from this name’s own recent norm, and whether the off-exchange size ran above its usual.
Off-exchange short share — How much of that off-exchange volume was sold short. The median across all listed names is about 49%, because wholesalers filling retail buy orders sell short and cover later. A reading near half is plumbing, not a bearish vote — compare it to the same name’s own 20-day norm.
Max pain — The price where the most options expire worthless — positioning often gravitates toward it near expiry.
Call wall / Put floor — Strikes with the heaviest call/put open interest — they often act as short-term resistance and support.
Put/Call ratio — Below ~0.7 leans bullish (more calls); above ~1 leans defensive (more puts).