Microsoft (MSFT) Earnings: Expected Move vs Actual

Past earnings scorecard: expected vs actual

0 of 1 recorded report moved outside the expected range

• Report date

  Wed, Oct 28, 2026

  Expected before

  ±5.0%

  Actual close-to-close

  −0.2%

  Result

  Within range

  Expected: ATM straddle near the Oct 28 regular close (Oct 30 expiry) · Actual: Oct 28 close → Oct 29 close · closes matched across two data vendors

The expected range runs to option expiry; the actual figure is one reaction session. An equal move counts as within range.

How to read these numbers

Expected move

The size the options market priced for the stock’s move around the report. It carries no direction.

Actual move

Before-the-open reports: prior close → report-day close. After-the-close reports: report-day close → next session close. Extended-hours prices are not used.

Within · outside range

If the absolute actual move is larger than the pre-report expected move, it is outside the range; equal or smaller is within. Frequent misses only mean options often priced a smaller reaction — they do not tell you the next result.

Frequently asked questions

When is Microsoft (MSFT)’s next earnings report?

The earnings calendar lists the next report on Wed, Jan 27, 2027 (est.).

What is Microsoft (MSFT)’s earnings expected move?

No options-implied move to show yet; it appears as the report approaches.

Did Microsoft (MSFT) stock move as much as expected last earnings?

For the Wed, Oct 28, 2026 report, the pre-report expected move was ±5.0% and the actual regular-session closing move was −0.2%, within the expected range.

See also