TSMC (TSM) Earnings: Expected Move vs Actual

Past earnings scorecard: expected vs actual

0 of 1 recorded report moved outside the expected range

• Report date

  Thu, Oct 15, 2026

  Expected before

  ±3.7%

  Actual close-to-close

  −1.8%

  Result

  Within range

  Expected: ATM straddle near the Oct 14 regular close (Oct 16 expiry) · Actual: Oct 14 close → Oct 15 close · closes matched across two data vendors

The expected range runs to option expiry; the actual figure is one reaction session. An equal move counts as within range.

How to read these numbers

Expected move

The size the options market priced for the stock’s move around the report. It carries no direction.

Actual move

Before-the-open reports: prior close → report-day close. After-the-close reports: report-day close → next session close. Extended-hours prices are not used.

Within · outside range

If the absolute actual move is larger than the pre-report expected move, it is outside the range; equal or smaller is within. Frequent misses only mean options often priced a smaller reaction — they do not tell you the next result.

Frequently asked questions

When is TSMC (TSM)’s next earnings report?

The earnings calendar lists the next report on Thu, Jan 21, 2027 (est.).

What is TSMC (TSM)’s earnings expected move?

No options-implied move to show yet; it appears as the report approaches.

Did TSMC (TSM) stock move as much as expected last earnings?

For the Thu, Oct 15, 2026 report, the pre-report expected move was ±3.7% and the actual regular-session closing move was −1.8%, within the expected range.

See also