What the institutional money is doing on NVO right now — dark pool, options positioning, and where the news and the money disagree. Free.
Call buyers are betting on a turnaround, but off-exchange traders are selling into that optimism—a classic setup where retail chases hope while insiders lock in exits.
Call volume remains elevated despite the downgrade, but off-exchange distribution (regime: DISTRIBUTION, short share below norm) shows large holders are quietly exiting—the downgrade may be validating what smart money already knew.
Call-heavy positioning ignores the longer-term structural risks flagged by the downgrade; off-exchange distribution confirms insiders are not betting on a recovery.
Call buyers may be catching a falling knife; off-exchange traders are distributing shares at current levels, suggesting they see limited upside from here.
Call volume is elevated but off-exchange distribution and put-call imbalance (calls 2.6× puts) suggest call buyers are retail-driven while institutional money is exiting quietly.
A divergence is when the news narrative and the institutional money flow point in opposite directions — a bearish headline while large call premium is bought, or heavy dark-pool selling under a bullish story. It signals the crowd and the desks may disagree.
Dark-pool volume — The share of trading executed off-exchange, at wholesalers and dark pools. About half of all US share volume prints there on an ordinary day, so the level by itself says almost nothing. What carries information is the distance from this name’s own recent norm, and whether the off-exchange size ran above its usual.
Off-exchange short share — How much of that off-exchange volume was sold short. The median across all listed names is about 49%, because wholesalers filling retail buy orders sell short and cover later. A reading near half is plumbing, not a bearish vote — compare it to the same name’s own 20-day norm.
Max pain — The price where the most options expire worthless — positioning often gravitates toward it near expiry.
Call wall / Put floor — Strikes with the heaviest call/put open interest — they often act as short-term resistance and support.
Put/Call ratio — Below ~0.7 leans bullish (more calls); above ~1 leans defensive (more puts).
